Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 10 August is being shaped by a wet monsoon setup, with official forecasters flagging occasional rains in Metro Manila and nearby areas under the southwest monsoon. PAGASA’s outlook and local forecasts for today point to cloud, showers and thunderstorms, which usually caps daytime heating even when humidity remains high.[12][11][2]

That matters because the current crowd price of **0% YES** on the contract implies traders are treating a qualifying Wunderground reading as effectively impossible, despite other venues pricing a much warmer day. Polymarket’s own market page shows the crowd leaning towards **31°C** and **30°C** outcomes earlier in the day, while AccuWeather and timeanddate are both suggesting highs around **85–86°F** (roughly **29–30°C**), a clear divergence from a zero-priced binary outcome.[14][1][4] On a comparable basis, August normals for Manila are typically in the high 20s °C to around 31°C, so a result in the upper-20s or low-30s is more consistent with climatology than a sub-25°C reading.[8][15]

Traders should watch the live Wunderground station feed at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, because this market settles on the **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low display, and late updates can still matter until the next day’s first datapoint is published.[10][14] The main dependency is whether showers persist through the afternoon and suppress the airport station’s peak; if breaks in rainfall appear, temperatures near 30–31°C remain plausible from the competing forecast sets, but if monsoon rain stays entrenched the contract can still resolve lower than the wider market expects.[2][11][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.