Highest temperature in London on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical data from Wunderground's weather station at that location, which captures daily maximum temperatures across all hours. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity across the available temperature brackets.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The City Airport station, positioned near the Thames in East London, tends to record slightly cooler maxima than central London sites due to its proximity to water and lower urban heat island effect. Comparable June days from recent years—such as June 2022, when London experienced sustained temperatures above 25°C—provide benchmarks for assessing the likelihood of warmer versus cooler outcomes. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests either a data lag or that traders have converged on a single temperature bracket with near-certainty.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's extended forecast as June 2026 approaches, particularly pressure systems and Atlantic weather patterns that typically govern UK temperatures during early summer. The North Atlantic Oscillation and jet stream positioning in mid-June will be critical catalysts. Any significant weather announcements or seasonal anomalies reported by the Met Office in the weeks preceding the settlement date could shift market pricing materially, though current conditions remain too distant for reliable forecasting.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.