Highest temperature in London on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at midday. The crowd has assigned zero probability to any outcome materialising, a positioning that warrants scrutiny given the specificity of the measurement location and the deterministic nature of the underlying event. London City Airport's weather station sits in East London, typically recording temperatures 1–2°C cooler than central London due to proximity to the Thames and lower urban heat island effects.

Historical June temperatures at London City Airport reveal a median high of approximately 20°C, with the station recording extremes between 16°C and 28°C over the past two decades. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets contrasts sharply with the certainty that some temperature will be recorded on the date in question. This divergence suggests either technical friction in market participation, confusion about settlement mechanics, or genuine belief that the market will fail to resolve—a material risk given dependency on Wunderground's historical data archive remaining accessible and accurate through the settlement window.

Traders should monitor UK Met Office seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, which will provide the first substantive guidance on atmospheric patterns for mid-June. Any significant weather systems—high-pressure ridges bringing continental warmth or Atlantic low-pressure systems—would shift the distribution of likely outcomes. The market's current pricing reflects no consensus view rather than informed bearishness, creating asymmetric conditions for participants confident in either typical or anomalous June conditions materialising.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.