Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at London City Airport on 13 June 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal liquidity across all outcome bands.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The Met Office's 30-year climate averages show mean daily maxima of approximately 21°C for mid-June, though the city has recorded 32.8°C in June during exceptional heatwaves. The current flat probability distribution across all ranges indicates the market has not yet consolidated around seasonal norms or any particular forecast scenario. Comparable June settlement outcomes from prior years show most days cluster in the 20–25°C band, with outliers requiring sustained high-pressure systems or continental air masses.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended forecast and any issued heatwave alerts in late May and early June 2026, as these typically signal departure from seasonal averages. The North Atlantic Oscillation and jet-stream positioning in early summer will influence whether Atlantic low-pressure systems or Azores high-pressure ridges dominate the period. No major scheduled events or policy announcements directly affect this outcome; resolution depends entirely on meteorological conditions and accurate station recording at the specified airport location.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.