Highest temperature in London on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s highest temperature on 1 August is a straightforward weather print rather than a seasonal average: the market resolves to the warmest reading logged at London City Airport Station during the day, so the key risk is the single peak rather than the afternoon mean. With the crowd currently assigning **0%** to YES at the contract level, the market is effectively pricing in either a misread of the settlement mechanics or no current confidence in an exact outcome, even though the platform’s own outcome ladder shows 26°C as the dominant band at **64%**, with 25°C and 27°C taking most of the remainder.[1]

That distribution looks consistent with a typical August London high, not an exceptional one. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook puts London’s August daily highs in a broad **67°–78°F** range, while WeatherSpark’s climate normals point to a long-run August average high of about **22°C**.[2][6] In comparable hot spells, London can overshoot the mid-20s by a meaningful margin: the city reached **26.6°C** at Kew Gardens on a recent warm day, which illustrates how urban sites can sit slightly above wider-city norms when sunshine and light winds line up.[3][8] Against that backdrop, a zero-priced YES looks detached from the temperature distribution implied by mainstream forecasts and from the contract’s own live pricing.[1][2]

Traders should watch the short-range forecast updates from the Met Office and any afternoon cloud, wind, or marine-layer changes, because those are the main dependencies for whether the day tops out at 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C.[1][14] The platform also notes that revisions inside the resolution window can be considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late data updates at the source matter for settlement timing as much as the daytime maximum itself.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.