Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on 19 July 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather database. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either confident the temperature will fall outside the upper range bracket or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to attract meaningful positions. Cross-platform comparison reveals no published sportsbook lines for this specific weather outcome, which is typical for hyperlocal daily temperature contracts; prediction markets remain the primary venue for such granular weather bets.

Kuala Lumpur's July climate is characterised by monsoon season conditions with consistently high temperatures and humidity. Historical data from the airport station shows July highs typically range between 32–34°C, with occasional peaks near 35°C during particularly intense heat days. The 0% reading likely reflects either a range bracket set above historical norms or genuine uncertainty about which specific bracket will resolve correctly, rather than consensus that extreme heat is impossible.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July 2026, creating a compressed resolution window. Traders should monitor Malaysian Meteorological Department forecasts in the weeks preceding the date, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions. The Wunderground data feed has proven reliable for airport-station readings, though traders should verify the specific station identifier (WMKK) matches the intended location before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.