Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport will record its peak temperature for 10 July 2026, the single data point determining settlement for this weather contract. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the event is impossible under the defined terms, though the specific temperature range triggering resolution remains unconfirmed in public listings.

Historical July extremes in Houston frame this zero probability as likely mispriced. The city endured its second-warmest July on record recently, with an average daily temperature of 87.8°F, while the all-time warmest July average reached 88.0°F in 2022 [1][6]. Individual July days frequently breach 95°F, with the average high for the month sitting at 93°F and forecasts for July 2026 projecting daily highs between 85°F and 96°F [4][5]. A 0% line ignores the statistical likelihood of a standard summer heatwave in a city where 101°F was recorded on a single July 4 in 2009 [10].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston forecast updates and the specific temperature range definition in the market rules, as divergence often exists between sportsbook heat lines and prediction-market binaries. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the Hobby Airport station, meaning any discrepancy between the official NWS report and the Wunderground archive could create arbitrage opportunities if the range is narrowly defined [8]. No specific announcements are scheduled before the 2026 settlement window, but real-time temperature tracking during the first week of July will be the primary catalyst for probability shifts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.