Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's peak temperature on 8 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory releasing verified data. Current crowd pricing shows 0% implied probability across the market, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur or a technical artefact in how the contract has been structured.

June temperatures in Hong Kong typically range from 28°C to 32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early summer heat waves. Historical Observatory records show that 8 June has seen highs between 29.5°C and 34.1°C over recent decades, establishing a fairly wide but predictable envelope. The 0% probability reading across all temperature bands is anomalous and likely reflects low liquidity or a display error rather than genuine market consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in early June, as these significantly affect daily maxima. The Observatory publishes its nine-day forecast and monthly climate outlooks regularly; any advisory of above-normal temperatures or unusual weather systems would shift expectations toward higher temperature bands. Since this market cannot resolve until official data publication, settlement timing depends entirely on the Observatory's administrative schedule rather than real-time weather observation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.