Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range. This stark divergence contrasts with analyst consensus and seasonal forecasts, which indicate above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong’s June–August period, with a high chance of 2026 ranking among the warmest top 10 on record[1][7].

Historically, Hong Kong has experienced extreme heat in recent summers, including its hottest on record in 2023 (mean 29.7°C) and a June 2025 peak of 35.6°C[3][6]. Daily highs in June typically range from 31.1°C to 33.3°C (88°F–92°F), with overnight lows between 26.7°C and 27.8°C[2]. The 0% implied probability appears inconsistent with this thermal baseline, especially as the Observatory has already warned of extreme heat days with temperatures in the New Territories reaching 37°C[4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract releases, particularly the “Absolute Daily Max” data for 24 June once finalized. Key catalysts include the seasonal forecast updates confirming above-normal temperatures and rainfall patterns[1], as well as any real-time heat warnings issued ahead of the settlement window. The Observatory’s annual outlook for 2026 reinforces the likelihood of record-breaking warmth, making the current odds a notable outlier compared to cross-platform consensus[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.