Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 2 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on that date.

June represents the onset of Hong Kong's summer season, with historical daily maximum temperatures typically ranging between 28–32°C during early June. The Hong Kong Observatory's climate records show considerable year-to-year variation; the highest June temperatures on record have exceeded 35°C, whilst cooler Junes have seen daily maxima remain below 28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting price discovery or expect the market to remain unresolved pending official data publication. Comparable weather-prediction markets typically show meaningful divergence between sportsbooks (which rarely offer weather lines) and prediction-market platforms, with the latter reflecting more granular probability distributions across temperature bands.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat warnings in late May and early June 2026, as these often precede temperature extremes. The East Asian summer monsoon onset and any tropical cyclone activity in the region during that period would serve as material catalysts. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 2 June, allowing only a narrow window for final data confirmation before resolution becomes possible. Official publication of the Daily Extract typically occurs within days of the measurement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.