Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 17 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate records. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory releasing verified data, which typically occurs within days of observation. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature range, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with odds display.

June falls within Hong Kong's early summer period, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 34°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme temperatures on individual June days are rare but not unprecedented; the territory has recorded peaks near 36°C during summer months. The lack of any implied probability across the market contrasts sharply with the certainty that some temperature will be recorded—this reflects either sparse liquidity or traders awaiting clearer range definitions before committing capital.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any heat advisories issued in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and issues warnings when temperatures are forecast to exceed 33°C, which would signal elevated risk for higher-end ranges. Atmospheric pressure systems and tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during June can materially shift local temperatures; any tropical systems approaching the region in early-to-mid June would be a key catalyst affecting settlement outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.