Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate database. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until that data is finalised and made public.

June sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 29–32°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 33°C. Historical records show that early June temperatures have reached 34–35°C during heat waves, most recently in 2015 when the Observatory recorded 34.9°C on 10 June. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature range options or treating this as a placeholder market pending full settlement criteria. Without comparable sportsbook lines or analyst consensus data currently available, the market appears thinly traded or awaiting activation.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any heat advisories issued in the weeks preceding 11 June 2026. The settlement date falls during the tail end of the pre-monsoon period, when atmospheric pressure patterns and tropical systems can drive significant temperature swings. Real-time weather models from late May onwards will clarify whether conditions favour above-average or near-average daily maxima. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts on its main website, though the precise temperature range brackets available for trading remain the critical variable determining where liquidity concentrates.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.