Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves only once the official “Absolute Daily Max” is finalized in the Daily Extract, with settlement ending 2026-07-03T12:00:00Z. Current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders view the specific temperature range as highly unlikely under prevailing conditions.

Historically, Hong Kong’s July highs typically range between 32°C and 36°C, with 2026 forecast to be normal to above-normal due to global warming and current ENSO status[2][3]. AccuWeather projects daily highs of 86°F to 96°F (30°C–35.5°C) for July 2026, aligning with recent trends where 2026 may rank among Hong Kong’s ten hottest years[4][7]. The 0% implied probability likely reflects a mismatch between the offered range and these established climatic baselines, diverging from sportsbook lines that often price broader heat ranges more conservatively.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly readings and upcoming Daily Extract publications, as delays in data finalization can postpone resolution[8]. The short-term forecast indicates mainly cloudy conditions with light rain patches through 9 July, potentially suppressing peak temperatures[5]. Analyst consensus, grounded in multi-model forecasts, expects above-normal temperatures but not extreme outliers, reinforcing the low probability of the specific range in question[6]. No recent news announcements contradict this outlook, and dependencies remain tied strictly to official meteorological releases.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.