Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 28 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This single-day measurement will determine which temperature band resolves as correct, with settlement occurring after the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data for that date.

Hong Kong's July temperatures typically peak between 32°C and 34°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 36°C during heat waves. Historical records show that the absolute daily maximum in late July averages around 32.5°C, with variability driven by monsoon patterns and occasional tropical cyclone activity. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting clearer temperature-band definitions or treating this as a placeholder market pending specification of the actual resolution ranges. Comparable weather markets on other platforms show modest activity for single-day temperature contracts, with implied probabilities clustering around historical seasonal norms rather than extreme outliers.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding 28 July. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory's publication schedule for the Daily Extract—typically released within days of the observation date. Any significant weather system affecting the region in late July would shift implied probabilities away from the current baseline, as would official heat-wave alerts issued by Hong Kong authorities.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.