Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 2 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific range containing that figure. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting traders view a particular temperature range as virtually impossible, a stark divergence from adjacent Polymarket contracts where 31°C holds a 27% chance for 3 July and 28°C dominates the lowest-temperature market for 2 July with 74% confidence[1][2].

Historical seasonal data frames this 0% probability as potentially premature, given the Hong Kong Observatory’s July–September 2026 forecast predicts normal to above-normal temperatures driven by the latest ENSO status and climate models[3]. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook supports this, projecting daily highs between 86°F and 96°F (roughly 30°C to 35°C) with an average high of 89°F, while recent tourist data shows a maximum of 34°C recorded just before the settlement window[4][8]. This historical warmth contradicts the market’s dismissal of higher ranges, mirroring broader trends where 2026 is projected to be one of Hong Kong’s ten hottest years with an annual mean above the 23.7°C average[9].

Traders must monitor the finalisation of the "Daily Extract" on the Hong Kong Observatory website, as the market cannot resolve until this data is officially published[1]. The immediate catalyst is the weekend weather outlook, which forecasts temperatures dropping to 13°C before rising to 25°C on Sunday, a significant swing that could influence the daily maximum if cloud cover or rain patterns shift unexpectedly[6]. Analyst consensus should be weighed against the real-time odds updates on Polymarket, where collective views shift as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest collective view of probability[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.