Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders see no chance of that particular temperature range being hit, despite Hong Kong’s reputation for intense summer heat.

Historically, July in Hong Kong has been exceptionally hot, with the highest monthly mean maximum temperature reaching 32.9°C in 2007[2]. Recent years show a warming trend: 2025 was the city’s sixth-hottest year, breaking 20 weather records including an annual maximum of 27.1°C[7]. Just this week, Hong Kong recorded its hottest day of the year so far at 36.1°C, surpassing the 1963 record of 35.5°C[3]. Comparable data from July 2024 also showed a peak of 34.8°C on 7 July[8], reinforcing that temperatures above 34°C are not uncommon in mid-summer.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather updates and the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” for 1 July, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published[5]. The forecast for 1 July 2026 indicates sunny periods with a few showers and temperatures between 28–33°C[6]. Any deviation from this range—such as a sudden heatwave or unseasonal cloud cover—could shift implied probabilities. Analysts note that while sportsbooks may offer odds on similar temperature contracts, prediction markets like this one often reflect more granular, real-time sentiment divergence, especially when historical data contradicts current crowd pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.