Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Helsinki Vantaa Airport will determine the settlement range for this market. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not currently backing any single temperature bracket, indicating either genuine uncertainty about the outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available bins.

Helsinki's July climate typically produces daytime highs between 20–25°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. Historical records show the airport station has recorded temperatures exceeding 30°C on roughly one in every five July days over the past three decades, though such extremes remain outliers rather than the norm. The city's maritime location moderates temperature swings compared to inland Finnish regions, and the settlement window closing at noon UTC on the day itself means only morning and early-afternoon readings will count towards resolution. This timing constraint eliminates the full diurnal cycle, potentially suppressing the final recorded maximum compared to what might occur later in the day.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-June onwards, particularly outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services. Atmospheric patterns driving heat waves across Scandinavia in early July—such as high-pressure systems positioning over the Nordic region—would be the primary catalyst for elevated temperature outcomes. The current 0% reading likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine consensus that all temperature brackets are equally implausible; as the settlement date approaches and seasonal forecasts sharpen, probability mass should consolidate around the most probable range.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.