Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou's peak temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect settlement complications, though the resolution source is straightforward and publicly accessible.

Guangzhou experiences early summer conditions in early June, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during this period. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent warm weather, though occasional rain systems can suppress temperatures slightly. Comparable June readings from recent years show little volatility in the expected range, making extreme outliers unlikely. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets appears disconnected from meteorological norms, indicating either poor market liquidity or confusion about the available temperature brackets rather than genuine uncertainty about whether the city will record measurable heat.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 4 June, which typically provide reliable five-day outlooks for major cities. Tropical systems tracking towards southern China in late May or early June could alter baseline expectations, though such disruptions are uncommon for this region at this time of year. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 4 June, creating a narrow window for final price discovery once the actual temperature is recorded. Cross-platform comparison shows minimal activity on competing prediction markets, suggesting this contract has attracted limited trader interest relative to other weather events.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.