Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date falling within the city’s intensely hot and humid June season. Historical data shows June highs typically range from 27°C to 33°C, with the absolute record reaching 36.6°C, driven by subtropical high-pressure systems and frequent heavy storms [2][4]. Recent Polymarket contracts for adjacent dates (25 and 26 June) have resolved to 35°C and 33°C respectively, both assigned 100% probability by their markets, suggesting a strong upward trend in daily peaks as the month progresses [1][3].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure index and any incoming typhoon warnings, as these are the primary catalysts that could suppress or elevate temperatures beyond the 33°C threshold implied by current crowd odds. AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast for Guangzhou projects daily highs between 87°F and 91°F (30.6°C–32.8°C), aligning closely with the 33°C resolution point but leaving room for divergence if a storm system disrupts the pattern [5]. While prediction markets currently assign 0% probability to the 32°C outcome, the adjacent sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts show no meaningful divergence, indicating consensus that temperatures will likely exceed 32°C, though the 0% YES figure may reflect a mispricing if historical volatility is underestimated [2][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.