Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will record its peak temperature for 10 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific degree Celsius bucket containing that high. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome suggests traders view a precise landing as structurally improbable rather than forecasting a cold day, mirroring the divergence seen in recent sportsbook lines where broad heat is priced heavily but exact contracts sit thin.

Historical data frames this probability math rather than temperature expectation: July highs in Guangzhou cluster around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 30°C or exceeding 36°C, yet the market offers eleven distinct buckets. As seen in the resolved July 3 contract where a 34°C peak settled YES at 27.5%, structural probability math keeps precise outcomes near one-in-four odds despite the region almost certainly experiencing torrid weather, with ten other buckets competing for the remaining share [3][1].

Traders must monitor the latest Wunderground model runs and official updates from China’s meteorological service, especially given China recorded its hottest July on record this year with average highs pushing the upper limits of the historical range [6]. Any new forecast model adjustment or official weather service update released before the 12:00 UTC settlement window could swing prices sharply, as volume arrives in a single 24-hour window and structural odds dominate the pricing [3]. The longest summer since 1961 in Guangzhou further elevates the risk of outcomes landing in the hotter buckets, making the 0% implied probability a reflection of contract specificity rather than a lack of heat [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.