Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the prediction market for the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will resolve based on Wunderground data, with the current crowd-implied probability of a “YES” outcome sitting at 0%. This implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to an anticipated extreme heat event. Historically, July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F) and rarely dropping below 29°C (85°F)[1][5]. Notably, the highest temperature ever recorded in Guangzhou—39.1°C—occurred precisely on 1 July 2004, suggesting that this date has precedent for extreme heat[3]. Recent national data also confirms China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures surpassing previous decades[2][6].

Traders should monitor official heatwave announcements from the China Meteorological Administration and any updates on regional climate anomalies, as these can significantly shift temperature forecasts. A recent Reuters report highlighted that China’s national average temperature in July 2024 was the highest since 1961, reinforcing the trend of intensifying summer heat[6]. Additionally, local weather schedules for the Baiyun Airport station and real-time Wunderground updates will be critical as the settlement window closes on 2026-07-01. Divergence between sportsbook lines (which may not yet reflect this specific weather contract) and the 0% prediction-market probability suggests analysts are betting on a record-breaking day, while the market remains cautious. This gap offers a clear cross-platform odds-comparison opportunity for informed traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.