Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 August 2026**, with settlement tied to the daily maximum shown by Wunderground for that station. Guangzhou’s August climate is typically very hot and humid, with average highs clustered around 32–33°C and monthly means near 29–30°C, so any price that implies a near-impossible outcome stands out sharply against the city’s usual summer profile.[4][18][20]

On comparable August days, historical summaries routinely show peaks in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and some day-by-day August records have reached the mid-30s, with rare extremes closer to 37–39°C in past years.[5][20] That makes a 0% YES reading look much more like a stale or misaligned market than a genuine view that Guangzhou will avoid heat; in cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather ranges and climatology-based forecasts still point to a hot day rather than a cold outlier.[9][10][18] The key trading reference is whether the airport station’s actual high lands inside the contract’s listed range, not whether the broader city experiences localised showers or cloud cover.

The main catalyst is the live weather evolution through the day, especially the timing of afternoon heating versus any monsoon rain or thunderstorm disruption, which can cap the maximum if it arrives early enough.[17][20] Recent forecast pages for Guangzhou still show highs around 89–93°F, roughly 32–34°C, suggesting the market should track the upper-30s-to-low-30s Celsius band rather than any dramatic cold miss.[9][10] Traders should watch for last-minute changes in rainfall coverage, humidity, and cloud build-up, because those are the variables most likely to shift the final airport-station maximum from the forecast midpoint.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.