Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak heat recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a date that falls squarely within the region’s most intense summer window. Current crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature landing in the lowest range is 0% YES, suggesting traders expect a scorching day rather than a cool anomaly. This zero-probability stance aligns with historical patterns where June highs in Dallas routinely exceed 95°F, making a low-temperature outcome statistically negligible.

Historical data frames this expectation clearly: June 2026 forecasts for Love Field show daily highs ranging from 96° to 100°F, with overnight lows between 77° and 83°F[2]. The highest temperature recorded in Dallas so far in 2026 was 97°F on 2 June, confirming that extreme heat is already the norm for this year[8]. Even the historic average high for late June sits at 94.2°F, while the record reaches 107°F[3], reinforcing that a low-temperature resolution is virtually impossible under current conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time updates for KDAL, particularly any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures[5]. While no major weather announcements are scheduled, the absence of significant storm systems in the region remains a key dependency for maintaining high heat. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather continue to project sustained highs above 96°F through late June, leaving little room for deviation from the expected hot outcome[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.