Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 27 July 2026, with the settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not yet pricing meaningful conviction into any specific temperature range, despite the market's settlement window closing at midday on the resolution date itself.

Dallas experiences peak summer heat in late July, with historical records showing typical highs between 95°F and 98°F during this period. The city's all-time record high of 113°F was set in August 1990, though July extremes rarely exceed 105°F at Love Field. Comparable July 27 observations from prior years show temperatures clustering in the 94–99°F range, providing a baseline for evaluating which temperature bands carry genuine probability mass versus speculative positioning. The current 0% reading across all ranges indicates either extreme uncertainty about the market's resolution categories or minimal trader participation at this early stage.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts beginning in early July 2026, as atmospheric patterns driving heat domes or tropical moisture intrusions can shift Dallas temperatures materially. The timing of the settlement window—closing at noon rather than end-of-day—creates a technical constraint: if peak heating occurs in the afternoon, as is typical, the recorded high may reflect morning or midday conditions rather than the day's true maximum. Any significant divergence between this market's probability distribution and comparable weather derivatives or sportsbook temperature props would signal where informed positioning is concentrating.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.