Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field recorded its peak heat for 16 July 2026 at 88–89°F, a figure that aligns with the city’s typical midsummer ceiling rather than an extreme outlier. Historical data shows Dallas July highs frequently cluster between 85°F and 92°F, with 88°F appearing in multiple recent years as a median high [1]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome below 88°F reflects this consistency, while the 100% assignment to the 88–89°F range suggests traders view this band as the statistically dominant settlement point.

No immediate catalysts such as weather model revisions or official station recalibrations are expected to shift this consensus before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline on 16 July 2026. Wunderground, the designated resolution source, has already published the day’s recorded maximum, removing uncertainty around data availability or timing delays [1]. Analysts across prediction platforms show near-uniform alignment on this outcome, with no meaningful divergence between sportsbook-style lines and prediction-market odds, indicating the market has effectively priced in the known temperature record.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.