Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue in pricing. Historical July temperatures at Love Field typically peak between 95–98°F, with occasional excursions above 100°F during heat waves. The 30-year average high for mid-July sits around 96°F, providing a baseline against which traders should calibrate their expectations.

Comparable heat events in Dallas offer useful reference points. July 2011 saw sustained temperatures above 100°F for extended periods, whilst more recent summers have produced scattered days in the upper 90s. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlook and any developing heat dome patterns in the southern United States will be the primary catalysts shaping trader positioning. Current atmospheric conditions and medium-range forecast models from the GFS and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts become actionable roughly 10 days before the settlement date. The 0% crowd probability suggests minimal trading activity to date, leaving room for meaningful price discovery as the event approaches and forecasters narrow their confidence intervals on the specific temperature range.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.