Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is expected to reach highs near 99°F on 12 July 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow. Despite this forecast, the prediction market for the highest temperature shows a 0% implied probability for a YES outcome, creating a stark divergence from the 39% crowd-implied chance that the temperature will land in the 94–95°F range on Polymarket[1]. Sportsbook-style lines on comparable weather contracts typically align with forecast models, yet here the zero probability suggests either a mispriced binary condition or a misunderstanding of the settlement rules by the crowd.

Historical July data for Dallas Love Field shows normal maximum temperatures of 96.9°F, with recent years frequently hitting 96–102°F[2][6]. In July 2024, temperatures hovered lower, but the 2022 record high for early July reached 100°F, indicating that 94–97°F is a plausible and common band[1][5]. The current 0% YES probability contradicts this historical consistency, as even modest heatwaves in Dallas routinely exceed 94°F, making the market’s pricing appear detached from climatic reality.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history page for the official 12 July reading, as this is the sole resolution source[1]. No announcements or schedules are pending, but the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026, meaning any delay in data publication could affect resolution timing. The key dependency is the accuracy of the Wunderground record versus the forecast model; if the actual temperature falls outside the binary YES condition, the 0% probability may be justified, but if it aligns with the 94–95°F frontrunner, the market is significantly mispriced[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.