Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s highest temperature on 27 July will be set by the reading at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, and the market is effectively pricing whether the day tops out in the **high-30s Celsius** or drops into the **upper-30s/low-40s bracket**. On Polymarket, the leading outcome is **39°C at 42%**, with **38°C at 31%**, which leaves the contract anchored around a very hot but not extreme reading by local summer standards.[1]

That distribution looks broadly consistent with seasonal context rather than a single-point forecast. July in Chongqing is typically hot, humid and unsettled, with average highs around **33°C**, about **188 mm** of rainfall across the month, and several heavy thunderstorms, while the broader rainy season runs from **May to September**.[2][3] In odds terms, the crowd is not treating this as a coin flip between mild and hot weather; it is clustering around a narrow band just above the climatological norm, which is why a **0% YES** read on any lower temperature band would look out of line with the seasonal baseline.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalyst is not a policy announcement but the day’s actual weather evolution at the airport station: sunshine duration, convective storm timing, and whether afternoon showers cap the maximum before the late-day peak. The relevant comparison is between exchange-style market pricing and the station’s observed noon-to-evening warmth; if cloud cover or thunderstorms develop early, the realised high can undercut the crowd’s 39°C anchor, whereas a dry, humid build-up would support a print at or above that level.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.