Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing on 2 July 2026 will experience its peak summer heat, with the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport determining the outcome of this prediction contract. The market currently implies a 0% chance of the temperature falling within the specified range, a figure that starkly diverges from historical climate data and analyst consensus on Chongqing’s July extremes.

Historical records confirm July is Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs near 33°C and peaks reaching 44°C in recent summers[1][2]. Climate models for July 2026 forecast daily highs between 32°C and 37°C, with overnight lows of 25–30°C, making a 0% probability for the specified range highly questionable[7]. Comparable cases from July 1 show similar market mispricing, where implied odds of 41% for hitting 30°C were deemed too low against climate records[8].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and local meteorological announcements, as Chongqing frequently experiences sudden heat spikes or rain-induced cooling in July[9]. The settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 2 July, so even brief periods of extreme heat could alter the outcome. Recent travel guides note continuous high temperatures and frequent rainfall, creating volatile conditions that demand close observation of hourly data[9]. No sportsbook lines currently cover this event, leaving prediction markets as the primary venue for odds comparison.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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