Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 20 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess no meaningful likelihood of the highest temperature falling into whichever range this contract represents—likely an extreme upper or lower bound relative to climatological norms for that date.

Chongqing's August temperatures historically cluster between 25–35°C, with daily highs frequently exceeding 32°C during mid-August. The city experiences a humid subtropical climate with consistent summer heat; August 2023 saw peak temperatures of 37–40°C across multiple days, whilst August 2022 recorded similar extremes. The current 0% probability reflects either a contract positioned at an outlier threshold (such as above 42°C or below 20°C) or trader consensus that standard summer conditions will prevail. Historical volatility in Chongqing's summer temperatures—driven by occasional heat waves and monsoon interactions—suggests the underlying event carries genuine uncertainty, even if this particular contract's framing has attracted minimal backing.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for regional temperature extremes. Broader atmospheric patterns, including the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and any Pacific tropical cyclone activity affecting moisture transport, will influence whether August 20 experiences anomalous heat or cooling. Weather Underground's data feed updates daily; resolution hinges on accurate station reporting from Jiangbei Airport, making data quality and any potential sensor issues relevant to final settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.