Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the day’s actual observation at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, not the rounded summary figure, so the contract is effectively a forecast of the afternoon peak rather than the headline daily high. The crowd is currently pricing a **0% YES** outcome, which stands out against other temperature markets that often show meaningful dispersion across adjacent Celsius bands when the forecast sits near a threshold; Polymarket’s own display for this contract shows the leading brackets clustered around the mid-30s, with **35°C** and **34°C** the main contenders at **41%** and **36%** respectively.[2]

The historical backdrop points to a market that usually resolves in the mid-30s rather than in extreme territory: August is Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around **33–34°C** in multiple climate datasets, while early-August daily highs in one historical series sit near **34.2–34.7°C**.[1][3][4][6][13] That makes the current zero-price reading look detached from climatology unless a forecast revision, station-specific cooling, or data-source mismatch is driving it. The all-time city record cited in recent weather archives reaches **43°C**, but that is a tail event rather than the base case for a single August day.[4][9]

Traders should watch the short-range forecast cycle and whether rainfall, cloud cover or weaker sunshine suppresses the afternoon high below the upper-30s band; Chongqing’s August rainfall is significant, with around **9 rainy days** in monthly averages, so even small shifts in convective activity can move the top temperature by a degree or two.[13] By 7:00 UTC on the settlement day, the market will be sensitive to any updated airport forecast from major weather providers and to whether late-day heat can still build before the observation window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is why sportsbook-style temperature lines and prediction-market pricing can diverge sharply when the day is already underway.[5][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.