Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 20 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the current crowd-implied probability for any “YES” outcome sits at 0%. This figure starkly contradicts real-world climatic patterns, as historical data shows Chengdu routinely experiences daily highs between 28°C and 30°C in June, with peaks often reaching 34°C or higher. For instance, Polymarket’s adjacent contract for 19 June 2026 already assigns a 95% probability to 34°C being the peak, with 35°C at 5%, indicating that the market expects near-typical summer heat rather than the anomalous cold implied by the 0% line[1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly feed for the airport station, as the resolution hinges exclusively on its highest recorded temperature for the day, and any data gap or sensor malfunction could skew outcomes. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather project June 2026 highs in Chengdu ranging from 78°F to 93°F (26°C–34°C), reinforcing that a 0% probability for any plausible temperature range is a clear pricing divergence from analyst consensus[2]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 20 June, the key catalyst is the final 24-hour temperature log, and no weather announcements or policy schedules are expected to alter natural conditions—making this a pure observational event where the market’s current odds appear fundamentally misaligned with meteorological reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.