Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's weather on 25 July 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from Shuangliu International Airport, the city's primary meteorological observation point. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading recorded across the entire calendar day, converted to Celsius and matched against predefined ranges. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this contract in meaningful volume.

Chengdu experiences a subtropical humid climate with July typically among its hottest months. Historical data from Wunderground shows July daily highs in Chengdu regularly exceed 30°C, with peaks approaching 37–39°C during heat waves. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a natural heat trap, particularly during anticyclonic weather patterns. Comparable July days from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant baseline: extreme heat events are infrequent but not exceptional, occurring roughly once every 3–5 years when upper-level ridging establishes over central China.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable skill for temperature extremes. El Niño or La Niña conditions entering the northern hemisphere summer could shift the probability of above-average heat. The absence of current sportsbook lines or analyst consensus on this specific contract reflects its niche positioning; comparable weather derivatives on major exchanges show minimal divergence between implied probabilities and seasonal climatology when settlement windows remain 18+ months distant. Real-time forecast updates in mid-July will likely trigger material repricing.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.