Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely anticipating a figure either significantly lower or higher than the contract’s threshold. This zero-probability stance is unusual for a mid-July date in Sichuan, where temperatures routinely exceed 30°C, indicating a potential divergence from historical norms or a mispriced range by the market maker.

Historically, Chengdu’s July highs at Shuangliu Airport average between 31°C and 34°C, with recorded peaks reaching 37°C during intense heatwaves in 2013 and 2022. The 0% implied probability contradicts this baseline, as even a mild day would likely breach the lower bound of most standard ranges. Comparable cases from recent years show that only extreme cold snaps or measurement anomalies produce temperatures below 25°C in mid-July, making the current odds appear disconnected from climatic reality unless the range is set unusually high.

Traders should monitor real-time data from Wunderground’s daily history page for ZUUU, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in regional weather models. A recent forecast from China Meteorological Administration highlights a high-pressure system building over Sichuan, which typically drives temperatures upward [1]. Any deviation from this pattern—such as unexpected cloud cover or rainfall—could invalidate the 0% assumption. Cross-platform odds comparisons may reveal if sportsbooks or other prediction markets assign non-zero probabilities, signaling a potential arbitrage opportunity if the crowd consensus is flawed.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.