Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the market assessing the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds at the Shuangliu International Airport Station. While the current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, this figure appears to contradict active trading on the parallel Polymarket contract, where the frontrunner outcome is 38°C at 34% probability, followed closely by 37°C at 28% [1]. This divergence suggests a significant disconnect between the implied odds on this specific platform and the collective view of traders on competing exchanges, where recent early-July observations have frequently recorded 34–36°C under similar atmospheric conditions [1].

Historical climatology for Chengdu in July typically centres on 30–32°C, though the month is notorious for fuggy conditions that can push readings up to 38°C, resembling the intense heat of Singapore or Kuala Lumpur [3][4]. The record for the region’s hottest day hit 38.6°C in August 2022, while China recently experienced its hottest July on record since comprehensive data collection began in 1961 [6][9]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the market settles based on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, meaning any late-morning heat spikes will directly determine the final outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.