Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 11 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that high. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests traders are virtually certain the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to expectations of cooler conditions or a different bracket entirely.

Historically, July is Chengdu’s hottest month, with average highs near 31°C and occasional spikes reaching 38°C, particularly during the middle ten days of the period[3][5]. However, the 2026 July historical data for Shuangliu Airport shows temperatures hovering around 21–24°C (70–75°F), significantly below the typical peak[1]. This divergence from the long-term average frames the 0% probability as a reaction to unusually mild conditions for this date, contrasting with the usual fuggy, high-30s heat seen in comparable years[3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu Airport on 11 July[8]. While no specific weather announcements are pending, the thin volume and eleven outcome bins in similar Chengdu heat markets suggest sensitivity to minor fluctuations[9]. The key dependency is whether the day follows the recent 24-hour trend of 93°F (34°C) passing clouds or reverts to the cooler 2026 July pattern[2]. Any deviation from the current mild trend could shift implied probabilities rapidly, though current lines remain anchored to the cooler historical baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.