Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s high on 1 August will be measured at Shuangliu airport, and the market resolves to the **day’s maximum temperature** in degrees Celsius from Wunderground’s history page. August in Chengdu is typically hot and humid, with average highs around **29.8–31°C** and many forecasts clustering near **30–34°C**, so the real question is not whether it will be warm, but how far above or below the city’s normal peak the airport station lands on the day.[2][4][8][10][16]

For context, early August is usually among Chengdu’s warmest periods: climatology sources put the average high on 1 August at about **31–34°C**, while longer-run August records show occasional spikes to roughly **39–41.6°C** and more ordinary daily highs nearer **30–31°C**.[1][5][7][17] That framing explains why a **0% YES** crowd-implied probability looks detached from the weather background; unless the contract’s strike bands are set far above a typical August maximum, the market appears to be pricing in an extreme threshold rather than a normal seasonal outcome. Cross-platform pricing is therefore the key comparison point: if sportsbook-style lines are available, they should be read against both the August average and the tail risk from Chengdu’s occasional heatwaves.[4][16][17]

Traders should watch the local forecast for heat build-up, cloud cover and rain, because Chengdu’s summer humidity can suppress the daily maximum even when the air mass is hot.[2][10][16] The main dependency is straightforward: the settlement source is a single airport station reading, so late-day thunderstorms, an earlier-than-expected temperature peak, or an overcast morning can shift the final maximum even if the broader city feels oppressive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.