Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 28 July 2026 will determine the resolution of this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, with historical temperature data from Weather Underground serving as the official source. Current crowd-implied probability sits at zero per cent, suggesting traders are either uncertain about the underlying conditions or awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts as the date approaches.

Busan's July temperatures typically range between 26–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that extreme heat events in the region occur roughly once every three to five years during summer months. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms; comparable prediction markets on East Asian summer temperatures usually attract non-trivial backing across multiple temperature bands, even when conditions favour moderate rather than extreme outcomes.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the region during late July. The Korean Meteorological Administration typically issues heat-wave forecasts 10–14 days in advance, with updates available through their English-language bulletin. Any significant divergence between sportsbook weather derivatives (if available through Asian markets) and this platform's zero probability would signal either mispricing or data-feed delays. Settlement depends entirely on Gimhae station's recorded maximum, making station-specific weather patterns—including urban heat effects and measurement timing—relevant to outcome distribution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.