Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's August weather will determine the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 17 August 2026, with resolution tied to Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently reflects 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range this contract specifies—though the exact threshold boundaries are not detailed in available documentation.

August represents Busan's warmest month, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 28–32°C at the airport station. The city experiences monsoon influence and occasional tropical systems during this period, though mid-August temperatures rarely deviate dramatically from seasonal norms. Comparable August 17 observations from prior years show consistent patterns: 2023 recorded 29.4°C, whilst 2022 peaked at 30.1°C. The 0% probability suggests the market may be pricing in either an unusually cool day or that the specified temperature range sits well above typical August readings—a scenario that would require exceptional heat or an unusual weather system.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from early August, which typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late summer could influence Busan's conditions, though such systems more commonly bring rain than extreme heat. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than airport summary data introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between the two sources have historically been minor but warrant verification closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.