Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

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Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Late May in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during early heat waves.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. The 30-year average high for late May sits around 29–30°C, but the month has recorded peaks exceeding 34°C in roughly one in five years when subtropical air masses penetrate northward ahead of the monsoon transition. The 0% crowd probability currently implied suggests traders are either awaiting range clarification or treating this as a placeholder pending seasonal forecasts. Comparable late-spring weather markets on other platforms show modest divergence, with some assigning non-trivial probability to ranges above 32°C, indicating uncertainty about whether 2026 will track toward the warmer or cooler end of the historical distribution.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks, typically released in April, which flag whether early summer conditions favour above or below-normal temperatures across northern regions. Real-time atmospheric patterns in early May—particularly the position of the subtropical high-pressure system and moisture availability—will sharpen forecasts closer to settlement. The absence of major scheduled events or policy changes affecting the station's operation means resolution hinges entirely on meteorological conditions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.