Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before final readings are confirmed. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this contract.

May temperatures in Beijing typically range between 25–32°C, with the city experiencing warm spring conditions before the onset of summer heat. Historical data from the past five years shows 25 May highs clustering between 28–31°C, with occasional excursions above 32°C during warmer years. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating either a resolution mechanism misalignment or that traders have concentrated positions in a single temperature band rather than distributed bets across multiple ranges.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 25 May, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Atmospheric patterns in late May are influenced by early monsoon activity and subtropical high-pressure systems; any significant weather announcements from regional meteorological services in May 2026 would shift expectations. The specific use of Capital International Airport Station data—rather than urban centre measurements—means traders should verify that station's historical variance, as airport locations can record temperatures 1–2°C cooler than city-centre sites due to exposure and surface characteristics.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.