Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing this as a certainty that the day will fall outside whichever temperature range this particular contract covers—likely an extreme upper or lower bound. Without visibility on the specific temperature brackets offered across the market cluster, the consensus appears to be clustering probability mass elsewhere, indicating either very high or very low expectations for that date.

June in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows June 9th specifically has ranged from approximately 26–34°C, with no extreme outliers. The current 0% reading suggests traders are either confident the settlement temperature will fall outside an unusually narrow band, or the contract itself represents an extreme tail scenario (such as temperatures exceeding 40°C or dropping below 15°C). Comparable weather markets on this date from previous years would show whether this probability reflects genuine meteorological rarity or simply market structure.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks by late May. Any significant weather system—monsoon onset, heat dome formation, or unusual cold front—would shift expectations materially. Airport station data can occasionally diverge from city-centre readings due to local microclimates, so verification of the specific measurement location remains critical for settlement accuracy.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.