Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is set to face another bout of blistering heat as June 28, 2026, approaches, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record its peak temperature for the day. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for temperatures below 27°C starkly contrasts with the market’s frontrunner outcome of 34°C, which holds a 100% implied probability on Polymarket, while sportsbook lines and analyst consensus suggest a more moderate range, typically between 30°C and 33°C for late June in the region[2][6].

Historically, late June in Beijing sees daily highs ranging from the upper 20s to the low 40s, with 33°C sitting near the lower end of typical summer conditions, yet the city has previously shattered June records, reaching 41.1°C in 2023 during a severe heatwave[1][6]. Average June highs in Beijing climb from 84°F to 87°F (29°C to 31°C), rarely falling below 73°F or exceeding 96°F, indicating that a 34°C reading is plausible but not guaranteed, especially given the city’s recent trend of intensifying heatwaves[3][4].

Traders should monitor the fourth and strongest heatwave forecast from June 21 to 30, which has already pushed Beijing’s temperature above 41°C in recent years, as well as any official meteorological announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre regarding heatwave duration and intensity[8]. The resolution hinges on Wunderground’s recorded highest temperature for the day, making real-time weather updates and heatwave dependency schedules critical for assessing whether the market’s extreme 34°C expectation aligns with actual conditions or diverges from more conservative analyst projections[2][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.