Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 15 June 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not positioning for any specific temperature range, indicating either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will settle. This contrasts sharply with typical weather prediction markets, where even low-probability outcomes carry modest backing.

June temperatures in Beijing historically cluster between 28–32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C during heat waves. The 15-year average high for mid-June sits near 29°C, though the city experienced a 40.3°C reading in June 2022 during an exceptional heatwave. Current meteorological patterns and seasonal norms suggest most traders expect outcomes within the historical range, yet the complete absence of probability mass across all brackets indicates the market may lack sufficient participation to generate meaningful price discovery.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June 2026, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Any significant weather system moving across northern China in the week preceding settlement could shift outcomes materially. The resolution mechanism via Wunderground's historical data for ZBAA station is straightforward and unambiguous, removing settlement risk as a pricing factor. Early June weather patterns and any announced heat advisories from Chinese authorities will be the primary catalysts affecting trader positioning.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.