Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty; July temperatures in Beijing typically range between 25–35°C, with extremes occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a narrow observation window that captures only morning and early afternoon readings.

Historical July records for Beijing show peak temperatures clustering between 32–36°C under normal conditions, though the city experienced 40.3°C in June 2023 during an exceptional heat event. The 2026 forecast depends heavily on whether an anticyclonic system persists over northern China during late July—a pattern that materialises roughly every other year. China's Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by mid-July, which will provide the first substantive signal for traders. Recent summers have shown increasing volatility in peak temperatures, with the 2023 heat dome and subsequent cooler patterns suggesting wider outcome ranges than historical averages alone would predict.

The 0% implied probability likely reflects either minimal trading activity or systematic underpricing of tail-risk temperature outcomes. Comparable weather markets on other platforms show modest liquidity for specific-day temperature ranges in Asia, with most volume concentrating on monthly or seasonal aggregates. Traders should monitor whether Beijing enters a documented heat-wave alert status in the week preceding settlement, as such official designations often correlate with temperatures exceeding the 35°C threshold.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.