Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is entering its hottest month, with July historically delivering peak temperatures that frequently exceed 35°C at the Capital International Airport. The current market shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the specific temperature threshold in question is virtually impossible to breach on 11 July 2026. This stark pricing contrasts sharply with historical reality, where July 2023 saw highs reach 40°C and the all-time record stands at 41.9°C from 1999, indicating a potential divergence between short-term market sentiment and long-term climatic data [1][2].

Analysts reviewing comparable cases note that mid-July in Beijing rarely dips below 34°C, with daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F) and occasionally spiking above 36°C (96°F) [3]. The 0% probability line appears to ignore the region’s consistent heatwave patterns, which have made China’s hottest month in recent history as recently as July 2024 [10]. Traders comparing cross-platform odds should note that while sportsbooks may offer standard weather derivatives, this prediction market’s zero pricing creates an unusual arbitrage opportunity against the historical consensus that extreme heat is a seasonal norm rather than an anomaly.

Key catalysts include the official daily temperature release from Wunderground for the ZBAA station, which will determine settlement, alongside any emerging heatwave advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities [2]. Traders must monitor the forecast for the coming days, as temperatures are expected to drop to around 34°C before rising again later in the week, potentially pushing the 11 July peak into a higher range [2]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026, meaning the final data point from the airport station will be the sole determinant, regardless of broader regional conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.