Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta's peak temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, the official National Weather Service station for the city. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, capturing the highest reading recorded across the full calendar day at KATL. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders are either awaiting range options or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across temperature bands.

Historical July temperatures at Atlanta's airport provide a baseline for calibration. The station has recorded July highs ranging from 89°F to 100°F over recent decades, with the median falling around 89–91°F. The 30-year normal high for mid-July sits at approximately 89°F, though heat domes and ridge patterns can push readings into the mid-to-upper 90s. The 0% probability reading appears anomalous given Atlanta's consistent summer heat; comparable prediction markets on US airport temperatures typically show distributed probabilities across multiple temperature bands rather than complete concentration in a single outcome.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Atlanta forecast as mid-July approaches, particularly any issued heat advisories or excessive heat warnings in the 10–14 day window preceding settlement. Atmospheric pattern shifts—including the position of the Bermuda High and any tropical moisture advection from the Gulf—will drive whether conditions favour typical July heat or anomalously warm readings. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull from KATL, which aligns with official NWS observations and should resolve without ambiguity once the date passes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.