Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s hottest reading at Hartsfield-Jackson on 1 August will settle into one of the contract’s Fahrenheit bands, and the current crowd view points to a fairly warm but not extreme outcome. Polymarket has **86–87°F** in front at **31%**, with **82–83°F** on **22%**, **84–85°F** on **20%**, and **88–89°F** on **15%**; by contrast, Robinhood’s related daily-high market is quoted around **83°F** at **60¢**, with higher strikes such as **>84** at **35¢**, implying a slightly cooler centre of gravity than Polymarket’s top band.[2][18]

The historical frame suggests why traders are not pricing an outlier: Atlanta’s August 1 average high is **89.6°F**, but the long-run record for that date is **99°F**, so the distribution is usually clustered in the upper 80s rather than near the 90s-plus extremes.[1] Recent climatology also shows Atlanta can still reach **100°F** in summer, with the city touching **100°F** on 26 June 2024, so the ceiling is real even if it is not the base case.[11] That makes the current **0% YES** reading on the title’s broader “highest temperature” framing look inconsistent with the historical range; the more meaningful comparison is between the market’s close bands and how often the airport actually posts a late-afternoon peak above the mid-80s.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same-day forecast revisions, any afternoon thunderstorm risk, and cloud cover that can shave a few degrees off the peak temperature. Polymarket’s own market text says ensemble guidance has a limited spread in the mid-80s and that late-day storms or cloud cover could cap the high below **86°F**.[2] AccuWeather’s August outlook for Atlanta also keeps daily highs in a broad **86°F to 92°F** range, which is consistent with the market sitting near the middle of the distribution rather than at the extremes.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.