Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s highest temperature on 31 July will be set by the day’s peak reading at Schiphol, and the current crowd price of 0% for **YES** points to an expectation that the eventual high will land outside the contract’s specified winning band. That is notably softer than the broad July climatology for Amsterdam, where typical highs sit around 22–23°C and long-run July averages are near 72°F/22°C, with occasional spikes into the high 20s or low 30s Celsius.[8][10][13] In other words, a zero-priced outcome implies traders are treating this as a low-probability tail case rather than a normal summer-heat bet.[8][10]

Historical comparables suggest the key reference is not the monthly average but the distribution of daily extremes. Amsterdam’s July record heat is well above average, with sources citing rare highs around 32°C to 31.2°C, while more routine July days cluster in the low- to mid-20s Celsius.[10][19] The cross-platform comparison therefore matters: if sportsbook-style lines or analyst forecasts are clustered around the mid-20s Celsius, a 0% prediction-market price would only be justified if the market contract’s winning band is materially above the most likely daily high, or if traders are pricing a weather pattern that keeps maritime air, cloud cover, or rain in place through the afternoon.[3][8][10]

Traders should watch the late-morning and early-afternoon forecast updates for Amsterdam, especially any shift in cloud, wind, or shower timing, because those are the variables most likely to cap the day’s maximum temperature at Schiphol.[3] The current forecast snapshot already points to warm but not extreme conditions, with a high around 26°C and a small chance of drizzle, which would generally favour a mid-range settlement rather than a top-end heat outcome.[3] For a market tied to a specific station and a same-day settlement window ending at noon UTC, the main dependency is whether the airport records its maximum before or after the midday cutoff in the source history page, so intraday temperature evolution is more important than the full-day weather headline.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.