Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s airport temperature on 30 July will resolve by the day’s peak reading at Schiphol, so the live market is really a bet on how warm the afternoon gets rather than on the morning start. Polymarket’s contract shows the crowd clustering around mid-20s Celsius outcomes, with **25°C** and **26°C** both priced at 21%, while the stated cross-platform signal here is **0% YES**, implying this contract is effectively being treated as unpriced or absent on the broader market view rather than as a normal consensus line.[1]

That shape fits the July climate profile for Amsterdam, where average highs sit in the low 20s Celsius and the daily high on 30 July is typically around 24°C-25°C, according to long-run weather-history and climate reference pages.[2][8][11] The meaningful comparison point is the tail risk: July can produce substantially hotter spikes, with Amsterdam’s recorded July extremes reaching the mid-30s Celsius in recent years, so a “highest temperature” contract can move quickly if a warm ridge arrives even briefly.[5][12] In other words, the market is centred on ordinary summer warmth, but it still needs to price a non-trivial overshoot.

Traders should watch the intraday forecast revisions for Amsterdam Schiphol, especially any late-shifting high-temperature guidance into the 27°C-30°C range, because those are the levels that would most directly challenge the current mid-20s distribution.[1][3][11] The key dependency is the local daytime maximum at Schiphol before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes, so changes in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and precipitation risk matter more than the eventual evening cool-down.[1][2][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.